FBC Oscar Coverage, Part III: Predicting The Nominees

Look, I’m gonna be the first to come out and say that I am terrible at picking Oscar winners. Most years, I’m lucky if I can clear 50%. Nominees, on the other hand… for some strange reason, that’s where I come to play. I can usually knock out 75-80 percent. I’m kind of a big deal.

This year, the Oscars have more questions than any year prior. COVID didn’t just get rid of Oscar season, it got rid of basically the whole year of movies. Most years, I go to the cinema 50-60 times. In 2020, I went once.

Because the moviegoing experience was changed, Oscars had to change what would be eligible in order for a movie to be nominated. This is the first year that a movie didn’t need a theatrical release to be considered for an Oscar nomination. And studios took advantage of that, sending films to Netflix, Hulu, and HBO Max as their way of being recognized by the Academy.

Every year, I predict the nominees for the top 8 categories: Best Picture, Best Director, all 4 acting categories, and both Original & Adapted Screenplay. Last year, I also included Best Animated Feature, and even though I took a bath on those nominees and it brought my average down, I’m gonna keep it in. I am not easily discouraged. I’ll also point out that I pick 10 nominees for Best Picture which is the maximum possibility (they can have as few as five), and that’s entirely because I like hedging my bets. Finally, it should be pointed out that these are the people whom I think will be nominated, not the people who I think deserve to be nominated, which is why someone like Bill Murray is not listed here for his amazing performance in On The Rocks or Palm Springs for Best Original Screenplay.

Before I get into my predictions, I want to spoil the lede and announce that I think this year, we’re going to see something really rare and special. Every now and then, you’ll see an actor or actress get nominated for two different films in the same year. It’s not terribly uncommon; it’s happened four times since 2000 (with Scarlett Johannson being the most recent last year for Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit). In the 12 times it’s happened, seven of those times the nominee has ended up winning one Oscar. However, never has an nominee won two acting Oscars in the same year. This year, however, I think the late Chadwick Boseman has the best chance for his excellent work in Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods and George C. Wolfe’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. I think this would be an amazing way to recognize a man who was one of the best actors of our generation. However, this would also mean two speeches from his widow, and based on what she gave us at The Golden Globes, I don’t think my heart could handle it.

Who will be recognized by the Academy this year? Here’s who I think:

BEST PICTURE

Nomadland

The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night In Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound Of Metal
The Trial Of The Chicago 7

BEST DIRECTOR

Aaron Sorkin, The Trial Of The Chicago 7

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Regina King, One Night In Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial Of The Chicago 7

BEST ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Riz Ahmed, Sound Of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Stephen Yeun, Minari

BEST ACTRESS

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces Of A Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Sasha Baron Cohen, The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night In Miami
Paul Raci, Sound Of Metal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Helena Zengel, News Of The World

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Sound Of Metal

Mank (Jack Fincher)
Minari (Lee Issac Chung)
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
Sound Of Metal (Abraham Marder, Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance)
The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Paul Baynham, Sasha Baron Cohen)
The Father (Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller)
News Of The World (Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass)
Nomadland (Chole Zhao)
One Night In Miami (Regina King)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Wolfwalkers

The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over The Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers


Who will be nominated for the Oscars? We’ll find out Monday morning.

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