FBC OSCAR COVERAGE, PART VII: Predicting the Winners (Part 2)

Last week, we looked at the screenplays. Today, let’s get supporting!

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfriend, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

WHO WILL WIN: Ok, so this year, this category is as much of a toss-up as I’ve ever seen. You could say that any one of these women has a very good chance to get to put a fancy trophy in their house. But I think Yuh-Jung Youn takes the award. Minari seems to have hit at just the perfect time, and I think there’s a good chance that film could have a very big night at the Oscars, and she is giving an amazing performance here. It’s absolutely deserving to win, BUUUUUUUUUUUT…..

WHO SHOULD WIN: There’s acting and then there’s Acting and then there’s whatever the hell Maria Bakalova is doing in this new Borat movie. Not only is she a comedy assassin just destroying all of her jokes, but she might be doing the most difficult acting, because she has to play comedy broad enough that it suits the material, but not so over the top that some of the people the film is going after (including Rudy Giuliani) knows that they’re being had. She was an absolute discovery this year and I hope it leads to more opportunities for her.

UPSET SPECIAL: Ok… I know that she was also nominated for a Razzie for the same role, but I would not be surprised in the least if Glenn Close wins for Hillbilly Elegy. Because the field is so open, the Academy may determine that this is the chance to give Close her first Oscar for a career of amazing performances that’s gotten her seven previous nominations. Will it be fair? It would not. But this is how it works sometimes.

WHO GOT SNUBBED: You know who was really damn great last year but someone who got overlooked in a good film that got overlooked? Candace Bergen in the new Soderbergh film, Let Them All Talk. She gives a performance that has her, often, going head to head against Meryl Streep and in almost all of those scenes, I found Bergen more entertaining. Close should be not on this list. Bergen should have.

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night In Miami
Paul Raci, Sound Of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

WHO WILL WIN: While the Supporting Actress category is up in the air, Daniel Kaluuya has pretty much guaranteed that it will be his named called for this category. What’s amazing about his performance as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton is that it is somehow a totally showy performance while also being real and down to earth. Kaluuya needs to do a lot of things with his performance of Hampton and he hit every note so fucking well. Give him the trophy.

WHO SHOULD WIN: I think Kaluuya also deserves to win, but it’s a tie for me between him and Sacha Baron Cohen, and for a lot of the same reasons. Cohen probably has the easier role because Abbie Hoffman is such a looney toon character and there are a lot of meaty scenes, but he never allows the role to turn into something too silly, and it’s pretty amazing to watch.

UPSET SPECIAL: I do not see an upset happening. Maybe Leslie Odom, Jr., who is so great as Sam Cooke in One Night In Miami. But that would be a long shot I do not see happening.

WHO GOT SNUBBED: Bill Murray is giving an amazing performance in On The Rocks that got absolutely snubbed and overlooked by the Academy. Much like how he deserved to win for Sophia Coppola’s Lost In Translation, his reunion with the director should have gotten him a nomination for his best role since then. And it’s easy to take someone off the list because, as I mentioned earlier, Lakeith Stanfield is good but his performance is a leading performance.

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