Happy Oscars weekend, everyone! Time to see who I think is going to go home with the little gold men, and by that I am talking about the Oscars trophies and not some weird child trafficking thing that Tucker Carlson probably believes is going on during the ceremony. Just one post for all the predictions this year, which has been a year of a lot of back-and-forth and some really interesting and heated races! Let’s jump into it!
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM : These are going to be the awards where your Oscars ballot is won and lost. I think Two People Exchanging Saliva has a slight edge on all of the competition, so I’m gonna give it to that.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: While I would like to see Perfectly A Strangeness take this one home, I think the prize is going to All The Empty Rooms, which you should not watch unless you want to cry a lot… like, a whole lot.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: I’m gonna give this one to the gorgeous Butterfly. Have I seen it? No. Have many of the people who have voted for it seen it? Also, no.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: There’s a good rule where if a film is nominated for International Feature AND Best Picture, you give it the win. But what happens when TWO films are nominated for both? Then you look for the film that is also nominated for Best Director, which is why I give Sentimental Value the slight edge over The Station Agent.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: I know everyone is thinking that The Perfect Neighbor is going to win this one, I am going to predict an upset and give this one to Mr. Nobody Against Putin.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: This was a ROUGH year in this category. I don’t love K-Pop Demon Hunters, but it’s the best film of the five and I think it’s taking home the trophy this year.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: I don’t have Avatar: Fire & Ash having a huge night at The Oscars, but it’s taking home this award and giving Sinners one of (spoilers) many of their losses.
BEST SOUND: The team behind F1 did a really nice job with their racing movie. It’s way better than it has any right being as a film and that is entirely because of it’s technical achievements.
BEST SONG: We’re going UP UP UP, give it to “GOLDEN”!
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: In the many battles that One Battle After Another has with Sinners in this race, this is the one where the vampire musical is an absolute lock.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The craft voters love Guillermo Del Toro, a big goofy dude who makes big goofy movies. Frankenstein will be the big below the line winner this Oscars season.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: See my last post. Give this one to Frankenstein.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: See my last TWO posts. Again, Frankenstein.
BEST FILM EDITING: Ok, Best Editing usually wins Best Picture, but there have been notable exceptions. I like One Battle After Another taking home the hardware here.
BEST CINEMATOGROPHY: Another win for One Battle After Another, which has some absolutely bonkers camera work, especially in the first third of the movie.
BEST CASTING: It’s the first time this award is going out, and now I have Sinners tied with One Battle at two wins apiece.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: This one is a friggin’ lock. Give it to One Battle After Another and it’s where Paul Thomas Anderson will officially get his first Oscar.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: This one is equally a lock. Sinners. Ryan Coogler. Take it to the bank.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Both supporting acting categories are absolutely insane and, with the exception of Jacob Elordi, you could make a legitimate case for any of the remaining four having a path to winning. So, that leaves us a lot of questions: Will Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro cancel each other out? Will the fact that Penn has two Oscars weigh against him? Will people be looking to recognize Stellan Skarsgard or Delroy Lindo, two men who have never been nominated before? There are a lot of questions. I cannot help but think about 2002, when I so desperately wanted Bill Murray to win Best Actor for Lost In Translation and Sean Penn took it for Mystic River. While I like Skarsgard, Lindo, and Del Toro’s performances better, I think Sean Penn comes in again and takes the prize.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: This feels like a little more of a three-horse race, with the two Sentimental Value actresses cancelling each other out. It’s not uncommon for an actor to win the Oscar when they are the lone nominee of their film. It has happened nine times in the past, and I see number ten happening tomorrow, when Amy Madigan takes out Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku and gives Weapons its lone Oscar.
BEST ACTRESS: No need for any fancy writing. Jessie Buckley for Hamnet is the biggest lock in the whole race. She could, honestly, start her acceptance speech now.
BEST ACTOR: If you had asked me a few weeks ago (in fact, Brandon did ask me), I would have told you that Timothee Chalamet was the lock in this category, mostly because of the unorthodox awards campaigning he was doing, which helped launch Marty Supreme to a $100M box office. He just had so much charm and charisma and then people got really fucking tired of him really fucking fast. Every time he had the chance to establish himself as the dominant front-runner in this category, someone else would come in and take the hardware from him. It just feels like his campaign ran out of steam at the worst possible time, and so the Oscars will reward Michael B. Jordan among this list of truly amazing performances. Which is good, because this will be where Sinners‘ luck will end.
BEST DIRECTOR: No big surprise here. A Coogler win would be delightful, but I don’t think anything is stopping Paul Thomas Anderson from taking home the prize. His speeches this year have all just seemed to show that it is his time.
BEST PICTURE: I want the race between One Battle and Sinners to be closer than it probably is. If Coogler and company won and stormed the stage, it would be a wonderful thing to see. But One Battle After Another, fresh off PGA and WGA wins, just has all the momentum. And look… it was my choice for the best movie of last year. So I have no problem with that.
Fancy Boys Club 