On Friday, in what a certain sect of America considered a major political move, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he would be suspending his campaign and endorsed former president Donald Trump. Kennedy made it very clear that he would not be ending his campaign, but that he would be taking his name off of the ballot of all swing states and states expected to go to Trump. The intention is clear unless you’re an absolute idiot: Kennedy is not really staying in the race, but if he can do anything to take one vote away from Kamala Harris, then he’s damn well going to try. The fact that the junior Kennedy was then announced as part of the transition team showed that it was obvious where his allegiances lie, which is interesting for a man who entered the election cycle as a democrat.
With Friday’s announcement, I thought I would look closely at Kennedy’s decision and ask the following questions: Who does this help? Who does this hurt? Where has the announcement of a political candidate supporting his previous rival moved the needle? Let’s dive in.
Donald Trump
All in all, this would seem to be a win for the former President. At a very tertiary glance, RFK Jr.’s campaign seemed to be the one most likely to damage Trump. Kennedy had a chance to step in and take over Trump’s “I’m outside Washington and I hate this political swamp so things will be different when I’m in charge” brand, despite the fact that when he was the President, he ran things the exact same way every politician did; it’s the best way to get things done. But what if Trump voters wanted to take the chance at a different outsider? One who believes the COVID vaccine Trump takes credit for is killing millions of people (note: it has not) and has led to an outbreak of autism (note: it has fucking not).
This seems like it would be a good point except we have to remember one thing, and it’s a very important fucking thing: so many Trump voters are not Republican voters. They are not anti-establishment voters. They are not even what some would call “MAGA voters”. They are Trump voters, and they always will be. These are not people who believe in principles and ideals. They believe in the man. And I get that if you don’t agree with the former president, these voters can be a scary thing. I imagine this is how Thomas Dewey supporters felt in 1940 about FDR.
What will scare the Republicans in four years will have nothing to do with anything the Democrats can do. What terrifies the GOP is what Trump voters will do when his name isn’t on the ballot. You may hate Trump, and I get that, but you have to understand and respect his ability to generate a fervent loyalty with a very specific voting base, and that base has saved the Republican party but also possibly will level it if no one can be found to pass the torch. No Trump voter was running over to the RFK Jr. ticket.
Similarly, now that Kennedy is out of the race, you have to look and what endorsement means, because the answer is: very fucking little. Kennedy ran on being an establishment outsider; a man that both political sides were afraid of (which is hilarious, considering his political pedigree). The people supporting him were fighting tooth and nail to try and get someone who isn’t part of the two party system in the White House. Do you really think there is any person who is going to say, “I know I wanted to rage against the machine, but if my guy wants to stand by a person who is part of the very system I’m rejecting, I guess that’s ok by me?” Kennedy voters are more than likely to stay home.
HOW HAS THE ENDORSEMENT CHANGED THINGS FOR TRUMP?: Not at all.
Kamala Harris
These next two are going to be a little shorter, mostly because Kennedy and Harris do not have the same relationship that he and Trump do. And I understand that Kennedy entered this race as a democrat and claimed that he had to run as an independent because they were running an unfair system set against him, but every move RFK Jr. has made has been, if you look at it closely enough, an attack on the Democratic Party. And I think most democrats were aware of this. There wasn’t a person who was jumping off of Joe Biden’s train to vote for Kennedy, and the same is true for Harris, who has invigorated the base and brought in even more people. While I dislike that Harris’ major selling point is who she isn’t (Trump), and I never like when a candidate runs on not being their opponent, I can also understand why she’s doing it, because it is the exact reason that Joe Biden won in 2020. And now that Kennedy is endorsing Trump, I cannot see how anything changes for the Vice President.
HOW HAS THE ENDORSEMENT CHANGED THINGS FOR HARRIS?: Not at all.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
As I have said earlier on this site, Kennedy has no chance of becoming president. So him suspending his campaign does not like him more likely to be president.
HOW HAS THE ENDORSMENT CHANGED THINGS FOR KENNEDY?: Not at all
Fancy Boys Club 