As we are days away from the Oscars, let’s get into predicting! All this week, I’ll be laying out my choices for who will (and who should) be winning the nominations. I used to have a category called “Upset Special”, but I’m now changing that to a simpler question: “Does anyone else have a chance to win?” And, as always, I’ll be letting you know who got absolutely snubbed by not even being nominated (and, for every snub, I saw what should have replaced it).
Who will be walking home with Oscars on Sunday, March 10? Let’s do some predicticating!!!!
Best International Feature
THE NOMINEES:
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society Of The Snow (Spain)
The Teachers Lounge (Germany)
The Zone Of Interest (United Kingdom)
WHO WILL (& WHO SHOULD) WIN?: We have to combine these two categories together for this one, because there has been one dominant front-runner in this category, which makes sense because it is also the best of the nominees. Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone Of Interest isn’t just nominated for Best International Feature, it’s also up for Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Fucking Picture (using the curse as an exclamatory- the Academy does not give out awards for pictures with fornication). There are a lot of nominees that I consider locks, but this is the one I would bet mine (and your) house on. Besides being the best film in the category, if you need convincing, here is the stat you are looking for: In the nine times a movie has been nominated for both Best Picture and Best International Feature, only one time did that film (1972’s The Emigrant) not win the latter prize. To add more context, the last seven times a film was nominated for both awards, it won Best International Feature every time. Lock it in. This one is a gimme.
DOES ANYONE ELSE HAVE A CHANCE TO WIN?: No. Did you read my last paragraph. This one is cement. Give Zone the Oscar right damn now.
WHAT GOT SNUBBED?: While I, personally, would have put in Switzerland’s The Taste Of Things over Io Capitano, it’s not something that caused me to curse the heavens. Both were good films, I just liked one a little more than the other.
Best Animated Feature
THE NOMINEES:
The Boy And The Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
WHO WILL WIN (& WHO SHOULD WIN): If my confidence for Zone Of Interest winning Best International Feature could not be higher, my confidence for Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse winning Best Animated Feature could not be lower. This race is the closest of the major races I’ll be covering and seems to flip back and forth every day. There are two reasons I’m giving Spider-Verse the slightest of edges. The first is that it won the PGA award for Best Animated, and that can be a pretty solid precursor. The second reason is… I just love this movie. It was my favorite animated film and #2 film of 2023. So, we’ve used some logic and heart.
DOES ANYONE ELSE HAVE A CHANCE TO WIN?: Oh, dear heavens, yes. Because The Boy And The Heron is breathing down the neck of Spider-Verse and for so many good reasons. It would be a final Oscar for Miyazaki, who hasn’t won one in over two decades. It’s a gorgeous and touching movie that everyone loved. It was the first Studio Ghibli film to win it’s American box office weekend, meaning people actually got out and saw this movie. Disney/Pixar had a very subpar year. Everything was breaking Ghibli and Miyazaki’s way, but I think Spider-Man is just a little too much for it. But just barely and a win for Heron would not even be considered an upset and would barely be a surprise. Also, the movie rules so it would be a welcome surprise.
WHAT GOT SNUBBED?: As I said earlier, this was a year in which Disney and Pixar crazy underperformed. It’s stunning that a Disney musical (Wish) didn’t get nominated and Pixar’s Elemental is overwhelmingly mid. The big miss here was the gorgeous and hilarious Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and absolute whirling dervish of a film that brings so much joy and heart to the characters. Mutant Mayhem should have Elemental‘s place and it isn’t even close.
Fancy Boys Club 