That is correct, it is time for the Oscars, my babies! Movies are better than football and more satisfying than politics, so let’s set those things aside just for a few moments and get into the moving pictures!
I thought I would start this year by saying that I’m going to be paying more attention to the Best International Feature. Since 2019, we have seen a rush of movies (Parasite, Drive My Car, Another Round, The Worst Person In The World) get recognition not just in the International category, but also in the major categories. So, I’ll be getting all cultured and shit and including them in my predictions.
I thought I would start the coverage by breaking down what films are hot right now, a mere two weeks before the Oscars. We’re just past the Golden Globes and still in the voting window when films and performances can be nominated, so this seemed like as good of a time as any to take a look at who could be having a very good morning when the nominations come out.
I focused on the major awards (Best Picture, Best Director, the acting and screenwriting categories, Best International Feature and Best Animated Feature). I created three lists: who seemed like an almost definite lock, who was getting serious attention, and who was getting enough consideration that they could become potential upset specials. Giving five points for a lock, three for serious attention, and one for upset specials, I made my spreadsheet. Here is any film which got one point or more.
1. Oppenheimer – 28 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Picture, Best Director (Christopher Nolan), Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey, Jr.) Best Adapted Screenplay
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt)
T-2. Barbie – 24 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Best Adapted Screenplay
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Director (Greta Gerwig), Best Actress (Margot Robbie), Best Supporting Actress (America Ferrera)
T-2. The Holdovers – 24 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Picture, Best Actor (Paul Giamatti), Best Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), Best Original Screenplay
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Director (Alexander Payne)
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Supporting Actor (Dominic Sessa)
T-2. Poor Things – 24 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Picture, Best Actress (Emma Stone), Best Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Best Adapted Screenplay
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Director (Yorgos Lanthimos)
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe)
5. Killers Of The Flower Moon – 23 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Picture, Best Director (Martin Scorsese), Best Actress (Lily Gladstone), Best Adapted Screenplay
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio)
6. Maestro – 19 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Picture, Best Actor (Bradley Cooper), Best Actress (Carey Mulligan)
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Original Screenplay
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Director (Bradley Cooper)
T-7. The Color Purple – 15 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Supporting Actress (Danielle Brooks)
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Picture, Best Actress (Fantasia Barrino), Best Supporting Actress (Taraji P. Henson)
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Supporting Actor (Colman Domingo)
T-7. The Zone Of Interest – 15 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best International Feature
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Picture, Best Director (Jonathan Glazer), Best Adapted Screenplay
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Supporting Actress (Sandra Hüller)
T-9. American Fiction – 12 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Adapted Screenplay
SERIOUS CONTENDERS: Best Picture, Best Actor (Jeffrey Wright)
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Supporting Actor (Sterling K. Brown)
T-9. Anatomy Of A Fall – 12 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Original Screenplay
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Picture, Best Actress (Sandra Hüller)
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Director (Justine Triet)
T-9. Past Lives – 12 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Director (Celine Song), Best Actress (Greta Lee)
12. May December – 9 points
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Julianne Moore (Best Supporting Actress), Charles Melton (Best Supporting Actor), Best Original Screenplay
T-13. The Boy And The Heron, Elemental, Fallen Leaves, Society Of The Snow, Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse – 5 points
DEFINITE LOCKS: Best Animated Feature (The Boy And The Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse), Best International Feature (Fallen Leaves, Society Of The Snow)
T-18. Air – 4 points
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Original Screenplay
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Picture
T-18. Nyad – 4 points
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Supporting Actress (Jodie Foster)
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Actress (Annette Benning)
T-18. Rustin – 4 points
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Actor (Colman Domingo)
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Original Screenplay
T-21. All Of Us Strangers – 3 points
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Picture, Best Director (Andrew Haigh), Best Actor (Andrew Scott)
T-21. Nimona, The Taste Of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem – 3 points
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION: Best Animated Feature (Nimona, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem), Best International Feature (The Taste Of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge)
26. Saltburn – 2 points
UPSET SPECIAL: Best Supporting Actress (Rosamind Pike), Best Original Screenplay
T-27. 20 Days In Mariupol, Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget, Ferrari, Perfect Days, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Totem, Wish
UPSET SPECIAL: Best International Feature (20 Days In Mariupol, Perfect Days, Totem), Best Animated Feature (Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wish), Best Supporting Actress (Penelope Cruz, Ferrari)
Fancy Boys Club 