FBC Oscar Coverage Part IX: Predicting The Winners, Part V

Welcome back to my ever-extensive Oscar coverage. In the days leading up to the Oscars, I’ll be predicting every award, but focusing in-depth on what I call the “Big 8”. In my first two installments, I predicting the winners of the screenplay categories, the supporting actor categories, the lead acting categories. and all of the other categories. Also, if you want to hear the Fancy Boy Film Society’s top ten films of 2019, you can check it out on the Fancy Boys Club podcast.

Well, we’ve done it. We’ve finally gotten to the two big awards: Best Director and Best Picture. I’ve stared at this list and tried to put myself in the mind of a member of the Academy. And while these two categories are the ones I’m the least sure of, I’m ready to lock it in.

Let’s finish up these predictions.

Best Director

The Nominees
Martin Scorcese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time… In Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Who Will Win? With the exception of Todd Phillips, it wouldn’t surprise me if any of the nominees won. Each of them can make their case, alt least to Oscar voters. But I think this is Sam Mendes’ year. 1917′s style has all of the flash and all of the bells and whistles that the Academy loves, and they also love a good war director. 2019 will be the year of Sam Mendes.

Who Should Win? If I were to sole person to choose Oscar winners (and, really, why shouldn’t I be?), this is a two-horse race. I love Quentin Tarantino and what he did with Once Upon A Time… In Hollywood is brilliant and beautiful and any other year, he would deserve to win and be given his first Oscar. But this is Parasite‘s year, and Bong Joon-ho is the reason for that.

Upset Special? I mean, there’s always a chance Martin Scorcese comes in and blindsides everyone here. People loved The Irishman much more than I did, and Marty has been nominated a bunch so he could take down his second Best Director trophy.

Who Got Snubbed? First off, I want to say that a documentary filmmaker has never gotten nominated for Best Director (nor has a documentary been nominated for Best Picture) and I think that’s a shame, because both Todd Douglas Miller (Apollo 11) and Beyonce Knowles-Carter (Homecoming) could have been nominated and I would have had no problem with that. But even ignoring those two, there were still two big snubs.

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a film so perfectly capture how music can effect someone, and for that reason alone, I would have put Gurinder Chadha on the list for the amazing work she did in Blinded By The Light. And with Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi blended comedy, fear, paranoia, and the horror of war all into a wonderful package.

Buh-bye, Scorcese and Phillips. You are who I would have removed for two much better films by wonderful directors.

Best Picture

The Nominees
Ford V Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon A Time… In Hollywood
Parasite

Who Will Win? With Mendes having won Best Director, I think it only follows suit that his film wins Best Picture. Will it be upsetting to me that 1917 takes home the whole thing? Not really. If you’ve listened to the Fancy Boys Club Podcast, you know it was the #5 film of the year on the official FBC list. It’s a visually stunning film and tells a pretty amazing story, so it’s not like it’s a bad movie. But was it the best film nominated? Nope.

Who Should Win? Parasite. Parasite. Parasite. Fucking Parasite. This is the film that deserves it. That this amazing film will be sitting on the outside looking in is an absolute shame.

Upset Special? Ok, so because of how the Oscars choose the Best Picture winner through an unusual style of counting votes (if any film does not have 51% of the total top vote, the film with the least amount of top votes gets eliminated and then that ballot’s second-place film moves up), it’s possible that a voter’s second or third choice has a lot of push to it. Because of that, and because all of these films are pretty good, there’s a chance that Jojo Rabbit or Little Women could come out of nowhere and take it all down.

Who Got Snubbed? Again, I really liked all of these films. But, as far as snubs go, we only have to look at Lulu Wang’s The Farewell. Besides being number three on my personal list, it was the official Best Film of 2019 by the FBC Film Society. It’s an amazing film that is filled with emotion and love of family and should have made the list. I’d have taken Ford V Ferrari off and put The Farewell on.

Who were your snubs? You do you think should win? Leave your thoughts in the comments.

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