FBC Oscar Coverage, part 1: Predicting The Big 9 Nominations

When this site launched, the NFL season was beginning, and that was fantastic as Jack, Brandon, and Alec all know a lot about football. Rick and Michael have written cleverly and wonderfully about the MLB, NHL, and NBA.

Well, it’s Oscar season. It’s my time, shitbirds.

I don’t know that it’s possible to love the Oscars more than I do. It’s an amazing night. For someone who loves movies as much as I do, it gives my joy that the awards presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences (AMPAS) seems to be the lone legitimate award left in the arts. You can take your Grammys and Emmys, weld them together, and shove them up your butt. The Oscars are where it’s at, motherfuckers.


Before I list my predictions for the Oscar nominations (which will come out Monday, January 13th), there are two things I need to caveat this entire coverage with.

The first is that everything I’m about to write isn’t what I hope will happen, it’s what I believe will happen. While I love the Oscars and while I stand by their legitimacy, I’m also willing to admit that the will of AMPAS isn’t always what I think SHOULD happen. Isn’t it crazy that everyone doesn’t love the things I love? What kind of bullshit is this?

The second caveat is this: I’m terrible at predicting. I usually do ok with the nominations (I’m usually around 75-80 percent), but I am the worst at picking winners. Last year, had you told me Green Book was going to win Best Picture, I would have drunkenly backed you into a corner and yelled at your for a few hours about why you’re a total idiot (to be fair, I correctly predicted Mahershala Ali would win Best Supporting Actor, and he deserved it, because he is the only reason that film wasn’t a shitty Hallmark movie). So, sometimes I miss hard.


While I love all of the categories, I usually focus on what I call “The Big 8”- Best Picture, Best Director, all four acting categories, and both screenplay categories. That being said, this year, I’m adding a new category to my soothsaying- Best Animated Feature. This was an amazing year for animated movies that I wanted to give them love. When Missing Link won the Golden Globe, I was absolutely ecstatic because it’s a movie that more people need to see. Even though Toy Story 4 was a better movie, I’m glad that the amazing folks at Laika got the win and hopefully get some more people to come to that delightful and amazing film.

This year is going to present some real tricky issues when it comes to predicting the nominees. There are lots of questions that force me to get into the mind of the Academy voters. Will they choose to recognize Bong Joon-Ho’s amazing Parasite in some of the major categories, or just be content having it in the Best Foreign Film category, where it is a near lock to win? The same is true with some of the amazing animated films, like Toy Story 4 and Missing Link. Also, will Meryl Streep get nominated for The Laundromat? It’s not one of the best supporting performances, but the Academy loves to nominate her every fucking chance they can get.

With that, here are my nominations for the Big 9 (one last thing: I allow myself ten nominees for Best Picture because there can be ten pictures nominated for every year… it’s also a good way to check some of my bets):

BEST PICTURE

1917

The Farewell

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Knives Out

Little Women

Marriage Story

Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood

Parasite

BEST DIRECTOR

Sam Mendes, 1917

Martin Scorcese, The Irishman

Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood

Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite

BEST ACTOR

Robert DeNiro, The Irishman

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood

Taron Egerton, Rocketman

BEST ACTRESS

Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Renee Zellwegger, Judy

Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

Scarlett Johannson, Marriage Story

Lupita Nyong’o, Us (AUTHOR’S NOTE- This is my upset special. I don’t think she will get nominated- Awkafina probably will get nominated for The Farewell, but to me, this was the best performance of the year, and I’m rooting for it HARD.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

Al Pacino, The Lighthouse

Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

Brad Pitt, Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

Scarlett Johannson, Jojo Rabbit

Florence Pugh, Little Women

Laura Dern, Marriage Story

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1917 (Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns)

Knives Out (Rian Johnson)

Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)

Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)

Parasite (Bong Joon-Ho)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Irishman (Steve Zaillian)

Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)

Little Women (Greta Gerwig)

Richard Jewell (Billy Ray)

The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Abominable

Frozen 2

How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Missing Link

Toy Story 4

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