FBC co-founder/editor-in-chief Brandon Andreasen is a football expert, and I love asking him questions about the NFL. He manages to be smart and funny and insightful while nerd-ing out on the gridiron. Today, as the Oscar nominations come out, he turns the tables on me and asks some questions about what happened this morning. Let’s get fancy!!!
On Thursday, the Oscar nominations will be revealed to the world. All the guilds and AMPAS members will finally have their say and we will see who will be in the running for movies biggest night. I usually can predict the Oscars with about 80% accuracy. Any less than 70% and I’m just gonna drink my way through January. Any more than 90% and… well, about the same. It’s cold in the midwest and there isn’t a lot to do.
I should point out that this is who I think will be nominated and not who should be nominated. So, with that said, let’s get into nominees from the major categories.
And the nominees will be…
When a movie is expected to dominate the Oscars in January, it can go one of two ways: It can keep the bright light shone upon it and have a very big night (Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All At Once) or can be weighed down under all of the expectations and sink to the bottom (The Power Of The Dog, 1917). Heavy is the head that is expected to wear the crown, and this year, that head is firmly on the shoulders of Paul Thomas Anderson, the 55-year old bespectacled weirdo whose film, One Battle After Another, is expected to have a very big March. The film, telling the story of Bob Ferguson (Leonardo DiCaprio) trying to get him and his daughter to safety, has all of the PTA benchmarks: a star-studded cast, a razor-tight script, a Jonny Greenwood score, and a lot of hype. One Battle will be Anderson’s fourth film making a run at Oscars’ biggest prize and he will almost be certainly be nominated for Best Director for the fourth time.
But something about this film and this nomination feels bigger. Because One Battle may have to win Best Picture in order to be considered a success. And, if you are a fan of movies, you need the film to succeed.
This Thursday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) will release the nominations for the 98th Academy Awards. I, as always, am fucking psyched. You’ve heard me talk about the Oscars before so you know how I feel about them. They’re amazing and they try to get it right and, lately, they’ve been doing ok. No, I am not counting Green Book winning Best Picture. Or CODA.
This year, the big question seems to be if any movie will be able to stop the momentum that One Battle After Another has been, seemingly, building since its release. While Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest movie seems to currently be on pace to have a big Thursday as the front-runner for the top prize, there are some storylines which have popped up in the last few weeks.
This Thursday, we will learn the answers to these questions:
Happy Oscars, everyone!
This has been the least I have written about my favorite awards show in the history of this site and there are two big reasons for that. The first is that the major races have been the most fluid I have, possibly, ever seen since I’ve been watching the awards as a child. While some races seem to have solidified, there are few categories where I feel like you can lock in and say, “This is one you should bet a lot of money on.”
Continue reading “FBC 2025 Oscar Coverage, Part III: Predicting the winners…”
With raging wildfires forcing the delay of the nominations until Thursday, it’s given me time to reflect on who the nominees should be. As some of the guild precursors have resonated, my Buzz Meter from a week ago has undergone great tumult. Nickel Boys has lost a ton of steam, The Apprentice has gained some, and Sing Sing has had one of the crazier pre-Oscar runs in recent history.
But, it’s time to lock them in. My goal is always for around 75%, with anything over 80% a near guarantee to turn me into an unbearable douche. So, with those stakes on the table, let’s get predicting!!!
We are back talking about The Oscars, baby!
Nominations for Hollywood’s biggest night will be revealed this Sunday which means we need to make some predictions. And we cannot do that without seeing which films seem to be peaking at the right time. So, to do that, I made the Buzzmeter!!!
The Buzzmeter looks at which films are getting the most predictions in the major categories (Best Picture, Director, Acting and Screenwriting) and puts them into three piles: Definite locks, Lots of good buzz, and Wild Cards. I gave 5 points to every lock, three to a film with good buzz and a point to the Wild Cards. Also, if you haven’t seen the movie, I will give what I can only assume was the basic one sentence elevator pitch for the movie.
Let’s get buzz-examining!
Most years, I do a column about who the Oscar nominees should be, and that is always fun for me, mainly because it allows me to feel smart and smug and self-righteous. But, you know what? In 2023, the Academy did a pretty good job picking the nominees. I don’t agree with all of them, but I’m onboard with most. So, I gave myself a challenge: Could I pick a slate of films and performances who deserved to be nominated while excluding all of those who were?
Like that, The Secondsies were born.
There is only one rule for The Secondsies. Anyone who is nominated for an Oscar in their category is ineligible to be nominated. This is a nice way to make sure that not just the obvious snubs got mentioned, but also to include some deserving nominees who never had a chance. I’ll present the nominees for The Secondsies and then end my Oscars prediction recap.
Let’s get re-nominating!
Continue reading “FBC 2024 Oscars Coverage, part XI: The Secondsies! Plus, final prediction tallies”
When Oppenheimer came out of the nominations with 13 noms, you had to wonder if it would be the kind of film that would keep it’s role as behemoth (Everything Everywhere All At Once) or lose steam and limp to the finish line (The Power Of The Dog). Will Christopher Nolan and his powerful biography win it all? Will Nolan win his first Oscar for directing?
Let’s see.
Continue reading “FBC 2024 Oscars Coverage, Part X: Picking the winners, part 6- Best Director and Best Picture”
Remember when my predictions started and I said Best Animated Feature was the closest major race? If that’s true, then Best Actress is a close second. There are two woman who each have an excellent chance of winning. Best Actor is a little (well, a lot) easier to pick.
Let’s get leading!
Continue reading “FBC 2024 Oscars Coverage, Part IX- Predicting the winners, part 5- The lead acting categories”
Fancy Boys Club 