Normally, I would do screenplays before I even thought about getting into the acting categories, but I’m mixing it up. I’m doing so mostly because the screenplay categories feel very wide open while the two categories we’re delving into today are very solid locks. Basically, I need one more day to help decide who I want winning the harder categories.
Let’s get supportive!
Best Supporting Actress
THE NOMINEES:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
WHO WILL (AND WHO SHOULD) WIN?: Do you remember how I said that The Zone Of Interest winning Best International Film was the biggest lock of the Oscar season? The second biggest lock comes right here because this category is basically Da’Vine Joy Randolph and the four very nice people who are going to lose to her. Randolph, who is absolutely brilliant and heartbreaking in The Holdovers has just won every precursor that a person could win. She has stormed through this award season like she is driving a tank, and will come to her final stop this Sunday when she is holding a fancy gold statue.
DOES ANYONE ELSE HAVE A CHANCE?: Look, I like some of these performances. But no. This is in the bag.
WHO GOT SNUBBED?: For as many nominations as she has (four nominations and a win), I’m not sure that Penélope Cruz has ever been better than she is in Ferrari. And Rachel McAdams brings so much heart and pathos to Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret. Take out Brooks and Foster, put in Cruz and McAdams.
Best Supporting Actor
THE NOMINEES:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers Of The Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
WHO WILL WIN?: Had you asked me when the nominees were first released, I would have said that Robert Downey Jr. was Oppenheimer’s slimmest chance to win one of the major Oscars. This list is too stacked and featuring some people giving their best performances and, if I’m being honest, I like Matt Damon a little more than Downey in the movie. But Downey has kept winning. And winning. And winning. And it won’t stop on Sunday.
WHO SHOULD WIN?: People do not understand how hard an effective comedic performance is, and especially one turned in by a guy like Ryan Gosling. But he gives one of my favorite performances in the year in Barbie, making every one of writer-director Greta Gerwig’s jokes work on two or three levels. He is performing a high-wire act of stupidity mixed with big emotions and he makes it seem effortless and pure and it will be a shame when his name is not called.
DOES ANYONE ELSE HAVE A CHANCE?: No, and that’s a bummer. I think this is the best that De Niro and Ruffalo have been in a long time, and that is saying something considering their impressive careers. Perhaps there is an infinitesimal chance that Sterling K. Brown gets love for American Fiction. If that happens, especially because this is an award that comes very early in the evening, then all fans of Oppenheimer should hold on because it could be a very bumpy night.
WHO GOT SNUBBED?: I personally would have given Charles Melton from May December either the spot taken by Brown or Mark Ruffalo. He is doing amazing work and holding his own against two powerhouse leading ladies (Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman) and he absolutely steals this engaging and emotional movie.
Fancy Boys Club 